Cargo Theft in 2025: The Numbers Fleet Managers Can't Ignore

A single cargo theft can cost more than a quarter million dollars. That's not a worst-case scenario. It's the average.

CargoNet's year-end report put 2025 losses at an estimated $725 million, with the average theft value climbing to $273,990. For owner-operators running on tight margins, one bad day can end the business.

The problem isn't getting better. Overhaul tracked 645 cargo thefts in Q3 2025 alone, a 29% jump from the same quarter last year. CargoNet recorded 884 supply-chain theft events in Q2, up 13% year-over-year. This post breaks down where the numbers stand, which states and products are getting hit hardest, and what actually works to protect your fleet.

Key Takeaways

What cargo theft is actually costing the industry

The headline numbers tell part of the story. Department of Homeland Security and National Insurance Crime Bureau estimates put annual losses between $15 billion and $35 billion when you factor in everything: direct losses, insurance claims, investigation costs, delayed deliveries, and supply chain disruptions.

That range is wide because most incidents go unreported. Carriers don't want the insurance hit. Shippers don't want the hassle. So the official numbers undercount reality.

Here's some context on the scale. The Association of American Railroads reported approximately 65,000 railroad cargo thefts in 2024. That's rail alone, and it represents roughly a 40% spike in a single year. The pattern holds across trucking, warehousing, and last-mile delivery.

These aren't random opportunists grabbing what they can. The people stealing cargo run organized operations. They track shipments, identify routes, exploit communication gaps, and disappear before anyone realizes what happened.

Where thieves are hitting hardest

Geography determines risk. According to Overhaul's Q2 2025 data, California accounts for 38% of all U.S. cargo theft incidents. Texas follows at 18%, down slightly from 21% in Q1. Illinois, Florida, and Washington round out the top five.

The pattern makes sense when you look at a map. These states have major freight hubs, dense metropolitan areas, and in some cases, proximity to international borders. The Dallas-Fort Worth area has become a particular hotspot because its dense logistics infrastructure creates multiple opportunities for theft rings.

Timing matters too. Q4 shipping season and holiday weekends see predictable spikes. More cargo moving means more targets. The most common theft locations remain truck stops, parking lots, distribution centers, and rest areas along major highways.

What products are getting stolen

Electronics and food/beverage products each account for 16% of theft incidents, making them the most targeted categories. Home and garden products follow at 13%.

The interesting shift in 2025 has been metals. CargoNet reported copper theft jumped 85% in Q1 compared to the previous year. With copper prices hitting record highs, thieves are specifically targeting loads containing the metal. They impersonate legitimate carriers to intercept shipments before anyone knows something's wrong.

The U.S. Department of Energy estimates metal theft costs American businesses approximately $1 billion annually. A significant portion of copper wiring for new construction gets lost to theft each year.

Criminals know what loads are worth taking. They research shipment values before deciding which trucks to target. High-value, easily resold goods get priority.

Strategic Theft Has Risen 1,500%

Physical break-ins are the old model. The new model is strategic theft: fraud, impersonation, and digital manipulation.

According to testimony submitted to the Senate Judiciary Committee, strategic theft has increased 1,500% since Q1 2021. That number deserves attention.

Strategic theft works like this. Criminals steal carrier identities, create fake companies, manipulate load boards, and intercept shipments through business email compromise. They understand trucking terminology. They know what to say to drivers and dispatchers. They operate like legitimate businesses until the freight vanishes.

The ATA described one case to Congress where criminals brokered loads under a legitimate company's name. Truckloads of Red Bull got diverted to warehouses in California and shipped out of the country. The investigation involved insurance providers, law enforcement, and Homeland Security. The fraudsters used VPNs and domain spoofing to stay untraceable.

This type of theft is harder to detect and harder to prosecute than someone cutting a padlock.

What this means for insurance

Insurers are responding by tightening underwriting standards. Carriers running high-risk lanes, particularly in Southern California and the Texas Triangle, are seeing cargo premiums climb and deductibles increase. Electronics loads face the steepest hikes.

Some specialty insurers now offer fraud-loss riders that cover double-brokering scams. The catch: you only qualify if you can demonstrate strong security practices. That means active GPS tracking, tamper-alert door locks, and documented protocols.

For carriers with weak security practices, coverage is getting harder to find at any price.

What actually works for protection

The tools exist to fight back. The question is whether fleet operators treat security as a core function or an afterthought.

Start with visibility

You can't protect what you can't see. Real-time GPS tracking with automated exception alerts catches route deviations and unauthorized stops before theft occurs. Geofencing creates virtual perimeters that trigger notifications when trucks enter or exit designated areas.

When loads deviate from planned routes, stop in unauthorized locations, or experience unexpected delays, your team should know immediately. Continuous visibility eliminates the blind spots criminals exploit.

Vet every carrier, every time

Verify MC numbers. Check FMCSA records. Confirm insurance coverage is active and matches. Be skeptical of unusually good rates or carriers who accept loads without hesitation.

If contact details don't match official records, dig deeper. Emails from free domains like Gmail or Yahoo should trigger scrutiny. Phone numbers that differ from FMCSA listings need verification before any load gets booked.

Train your team to recognize red flags

The people answering phones and booking loads are your first line of defense. They need to know what suspicious activity looks like.

What should raise concerns? Requests for payment through Zelle or CashApp, pressure to book quickly without standard verification, contact information that doesn't match carrier records, and brokers who can't answer basic questions about their operation.

Document everything at pickup

Require driver IDs, truck numbers, and timestamped photos at every pickup. This creates an evidence chain that supports insurance claims and law enforcement investigations when things go wrong.

Good documentation habits cost nothing and can make the difference between a successful recovery and a total loss.

The takeaway for fleet operators

Cargo theft isn't slowing down. The criminals are organized, sophisticated, and constantly adapting. The old approach of locks, seals, and hope doesn't work anymore.

The carriers who avoid losses will be those who treat security as a core operational function. That means real-time visibility, rigorous carrier vetting, trained staff, and documented procedures.

The question isn't whether your fleet will be targeted. It's whether you'll catch it before the cargo disappears.

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FAQs

How much does cargo theft cost the U.S. economy annually?

Estimates from DHS and the National Insurance Crime Bureau put annual losses between $15 billion and $35 billion. That includes direct losses, insurance claims, investigations, delayed shipments, and supply chain disruptions. The true cost is difficult to measure because many incidents go unreported.

Which states have the highest cargo theft rates?

According to Overhaul's Q2 2025 data, California leads with 38% of U.S. cargo theft incidents. Texas follows at 18%. Illinois, Florida, and Washington round out the top five. These states contain major freight hubs and large metropolitan areas that make them attractive to organized theft rings.

What is strategic cargo theft?

Strategic theft uses fraud, impersonation, and digital manipulation rather than physical break-ins. Criminals steal carrier identities, create fake companies, manipulate load boards, and intercept shipments through email compromise. According to Congressional testimony, this type of theft has increased 1,500% since Q1 2021 because it's harder to detect and prosecute.

What products are thieves targeting most?

Electronics and food/beverage products are tied at 16% each as the most targeted categories. Home and garden products follow at 13%. Metal thefts, particularly copper, jumped 85% in Q1 2025 due to record commodity prices. Thieves increasingly research load values before targeting specific shipments.

What steps can protect my fleet from cargo theft?

Start with real-time GPS tracking and geofencing to maintain visibility. Vet every carrier by verifying MC numbers, checking FMCSA records, and confirming insurance. Train staff to recognize fraud red flags like free email domains and mismatched contact information. Document every pickup with driver IDs, truck numbers, and timestamped photos.